Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.009045 0.010198 0.011444 0.012891 0.014528 0.016322 0.018437
2026-01-18 0.007113 0.008673 0.010499 0.012795 0.015609 0.018953 0.023235
2026-01-25 0.006048 0.007785 0.009931 0.012784 0.016485 0.021137 0.027447
2026-02-01 0.005219 0.007019 0.009345 0.012578 0.016971 0.022754 0.030978
2026-02-08 0.004683 0.006543 0.009040 0.012649 0.017755 0.024751 0.035122
2026-02-15 0.004197 0.006065 0.008660 0.012545 0.018240 0.026331 0.038780
2026-02-22 0.003904 0.005819 0.008565 0.012809 0.019241 0.028688 0.043731
2026-03-01 0.003473 0.005325 0.008056 0.012401 0.019189 0.029463 0.046347
2026-03-08 0.003147 0.004953 0.007690 0.012163 0.019351 0.030546 0.049494
2026-03-15 0.002845 0.004589 0.007297 0.011840 0.019335 0.031325 0.052190
2026-03-22 0.002737 0.004521 0.007361 0.012244 0.020514 0.034094 0.058382
2026-03-29 0.002608 0.004408 0.007338 0.012498 0.021455 0.036534 0.064214
2026-04-05 0.002494 0.004310 0.007338 0.012799 0.022514 0.039287 0.070892
2026-04-12 0.002319 0.004096 0.007123 0.012708 0.022882 0.040875 0.075639
2026-04-19 0.002175 0.003923 0.006964 0.012698 0.023385 0.042729 0.081024
2026-04-26 0.002015 0.003707 0.006711 0.012493 0.023509 0.043892 0.085193
2026-05-03 0.001910 0.003583 0.006612 0.012564 0.024147 0.046053 0.091469
2026-05-10 0.001791 0.003421 0.006430 0.012460 0.024438 0.047569 0.096592
2026-05-17 0.001728 0.003364 0.006439 0.012722 0.025463 0.050584 0.105010
2026-05-24 0.001589 0.003145 0.006123 0.012317 0.025117 0.050846 0.107732
2026-05-31 0.001481 0.002981 0.005900 0.012081 0.025092 0.051745 0.111869
2026-06-07 0.001373 0.002808 0.005646 0.011760 0.024862 0.052198 0.115070
2026-06-14 0.001349 0.002805 0.005736 0.012161 0.026193 0.056035 0.126079